فصلنامه جغرافیا
پیاپی 76 (بهار 1402)

The Middle East as one of the most important and strategic regions of the world, after the end of World War II and throughout the Cold War, one of the main areas of conflict and rivalry between the two superpowers. The United States and the Soviet Union. In the meantime, although the Soviet Union, with one or two few footholds in the region, did not play a significant role in the region's processes and relations, much of this vast and important region was the field of activity and power mapping. Western countries, especially the United States, were completely under the control and influence of this world power and had a relatively integrated structure within the framework of the goals and policies of this country. With the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1978 (1979 AD), the first major blow was dealt to the integrated and uniform structure of the region and it faced a major instability and rift. The Islamic Revolution in Iran, in addition to its internal effects, left far-reaching results and consequences among the nations and countries of the region, and the source and inspiration of popular movements and the emergence of anti-American and Western currents and movements of Islamic nature in Became countries of the region. Expansion of popular movements inspired by Islamic teachings and especially influenced by the Islamic Revolution of Iran, the ground for the rise of the above currents and movements in countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon were provided and in fact a definite alignment emerged between the countries of the region and the spatial construction of the region became de-polar in nature. In this regard, several other events such as the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the events of September 11, the US invasion of the region and the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, the fall of Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq and finally Popular uprisings in the Islamic countries of North Africa spread to some Middle Eastern countries, such as Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, and Jordan, and eventually the military conflict between the Palestinian and Lebanese jihadist groups and the Israeli government and other similar incidents became more prominent. Political and economic alignments led among the countries of the region and practically divided the countries and movements in the region into two groups and specific fronts of resistance and surrender. The Islamic Republic of Iran as the main center of this front, was located along with countries such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestinian and Yemeni jihadist groups, which converged on axes such as common threats and views and had achieved relative unity, in the opposite row, the group of countries on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf with the government of Israel, which, relying on Western powers and large arms purchases, are trying to confront the countries of the resistance front.

The present study is among the theoretical and future research and in terms of purpose, it is part of applied research and problem solving that is in a descriptive-analytical form and using methods. Quantitatively and qualitatively, adjusted and compiled. How to collect data in two methods library and documentary and also by designing a questionnaire of 20 questions from the table of strengths, weaknesses and opportunities and threats of the SWOT analytical model and available to research samples selected by purposive sampling method Have been located. The research sample includes 30 experts in political geography, political science and Middle East studies who provided with a questionnaire by Delphi method and elite interviews. Then, the results obtained from the experts' answers reviewed and then the components of opportunity, threat, strength and weakness normalized separately. The weight scores of each obtained by normalizing the four components, and finally the sum of the weight scores is calculated. Thus, the number 2.56 obtained for the components of opportunity and threat and the number 2.49 obtained for the components of strength and weakness, which indicates that it is very close to the average number (2.5). In the following, 20 strategies have been extracted from the components, 9 of which have been prioritized with high scores. The TOPSIS method has also used to prioritize strategies.

As the developments in the Arab world became more complex and popular uprisings spread to most of the Middle Eastern countries, the increasing competition of powers for the intellectual and operational orientation of these developments began. In the meantime, a group of countries and groups called the Axis of Resistance activated to consolidate and increase their own geostrategic and ideological depth in the Middle East. Although the background of a number of actors in the axis of resistance dates back to the beginning of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, but the field developments in Iraq, Syria and then Yemen, added to the multi-layered nature of this axis and attracted new activists.

The research findings show that the sum of the weighted scores obtained indicates that the factors influencing the formation or non-formation of the resistance-based union are neither too strong nor too weak. It is in the middle position. In addition, the final number obtained is 2.56, which indicates that the idea of ​​forming a resistance-based union is strong. On the other hand, the sum of weighted scores also indicates that the situation of countries and groups based on resistance is in average conditions and the probability of forming a union based on resistance is moderate. To increase the likelihood of the formation of a regional union of the axis of resistance have proposed 20 strategies based on the principle of complementarity and interdependence.

Much of the process of developing political geography has been influenced by theories proposed by global thinkers over the past two centuries. The classical theories of political geography have been proposed mainly with the focus on the state and its constituent components. However, modern and postmodern theories of political geography, although they still pay special attention to the state and the national/country scale, but they do not reflect this centrality as a unit. Therefore, with the help of the geographical scale problem, it expands the scope of political geography from the micro level to the global level with wider issues.

Our main purpose in this applied and theoretical research is to study the role of the United States in the theories of political geography of the three classical, modern and postmodern periods, from the dawn of the twentieth century to It is now. An examination of 14 theories by political geography theorists shows that each thinker seeks to represent in some way the role of the United States and its rise and fall in the world order to the rulers of their own country or to the world. These fourteen theories are: Turner's frontier hypothesis, the influence of central authority on the landscape (Whittlesey), the political cycle of state (Valkenburg), the geographical understanding of political survival (Hartshorne), the geographical model of political systems analysis (Cohen and Resonant), Theories of the world system, the center-periphery model and the theory of the decline of American power (Wallerstein), the triple theory of modernity (Peter Taylor), the theory of the political geography of the world order (John René Short), the theory of distance and foreign policy (Henrikson), the theory of modern nation-building (Fukuyama) and the theory of social movement in political geography (Michael Brown).

The United States has played a prominent role in the thought process of prominent American and non-American theorists, and in this article, we have examined the role of the United States in the theories of political geography from the beginning of the 20th century until now. The results of the research show that in the theories of the three periods of classical, modern and post-modern geopolitics, the United States has played the largest role among all countries in the world, and in fact theorizing in political geography is not possible without considering the role of the United States.

The classical theories of political geography that have been proposed with the focus of the state, including hypothesis of the frontier, the impact of the central authority on the perspective and political cycle of nation, have focused on the "state" and the national scale, as the main actor of the international system. In these theories, the United States has been attractive to these theorists as a country that has represented hegemony in the future world order. In addition, the nationality of the classic political geography theorists discussed in the article (Turner, Whittlesey, and Valkenburg), who are all Americans, has played a key role in focusing these theories on the United States and its representation.After that, the modern theories of political geography, which is a product of the Cold War era, also started with theories focusing on the national scale, and Hartshorne illustrated the geographical position of the United States in the world order. This level of scale in theorizing continued with the theory of Cohen and Rosental, and they placed the United States as one of the main countries at the end of the open spectrum of the world's national political systems. But the focus on state-centric in modern theorizing gradually faded, and the theories of American Taylor and Wallerstein, presented at the end of the Cold War, found a wider scale and ranged from the local to the global level. Of course, this did not prevent these theorists from emphasizing the national interests of their country, and they always depicted the hegemonic role of the United States in the world order in their theories. In postmodern theories; This progress in the scalability of theories continued with the theory of triple of modernity, and the United States was introduced as the representative of the third round of modernity and depicted as the third hegemon. These levels of postmodern analysis continued in political geography with the work of John René Short, Henrikson, and Fukuyama. However, the key role of the United States was maintained with regard to the American nationality or the countries aligned with those theorists on the one hand and maintaining the global power of this country on the other hand.

Today, the automobile is the most important means of transportation, which has a lot of movement and energy. Concerning this process, in recent decades, concepts such as sustainable development and sustainable urban development have been proposed as solutions to the patterns of physical, social, and economic development. Therefore, problems such as the destruction of natural resources, destruction of biological systems, excessive population growth, injustice and reducing the quality of human life in the present and future can be prevented. Accordingly, governments are always trying to overcome environmental problems with various policies and programs or reduce the negative effects of human functions on the environment (pollution and environmental degradation). Khoy city, due to the special place in the region and a wide sphere of influence in terms of population and administrative and economic flows, has the most traffic in the region, especially in the city, which requires the existence of intelligent urban systems. Although we are currently witnessing public transportation and taxi systems in some parts of the city, there are still many challenges and issues until the needs of the citizens are met, which the most important of them are the lack of coverage of most parts of the city, unnecessary traffic of some citizens, lack of bicycle lanes, heavy traffic in the central and historical contexts, lack of close monitoring of the public transportation system, disorder in the transportation system, incompatibility of urban land use planning system with urban transportation system, the lack of promotion of the central sidewalk network and the weakness of security in these spaces, disorder in the urban design system including pedestrian lines, sidewalks, and the network of roads, etc. Based on this, the present study tries to identify the indicators and components in order to evaluate the performance of Khoy city transportation system by emphasizing the approach of smart urban growth and improving the quality of life of citizens. In other words, the purpose of this study is to answer the following question: - What are the most important indicators for assessing the public transportation situation based on the smart growth approach in Khoy city؟

The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of method and practical in terms of applying the results. The statistical population of this study is the residents of Khoy city. Cochran's formula has been used to select a suitable sample for evaluation; in this context, the population of Khoy city, according to the last census in 2016, was 8845 people, so the selected sample is estimated at 383 people. The scale of measurement based on the Likert scale was from very low to very high and the way of scoring the questionnaire was from 1 to 5. Data analysis by structural equations has been exerted to analyze the research model. Through these techniques, the researcher can confirm or reject a hypothetical structure. In this regard, SPSS and Smart-PLS software programs have been exploited. The indicators were selected based on documentary-library and field studies, containing 24 indicators in 8 components.

The results of the study showed that there was a significant relationship at the level of 0.01% between the components of public transportation and smart growth. So that the most impacts related to the components of preservation of historical, safety and social monuments were 0.92 and 0.84 percent, respectively. Also at the factor loadings level, the lack of damage to open space and air pollution, encouraging growth from within and reducing sprawl growth, and creating job opportunities have had the greatest impact. Associated with intelligence, policy and safety were 19 and 68, respectively, and in contrast, the highest level of protection of historical and economic monuments was 145 and 105. Moreover, the highest significance was related to job creation, price reform, and interconnected transportation networks with values ​​of 291, 262, and 207, respectively. In contrast, the participation of the private sector, the diversity of routes between the two points, and the alignment of land-use policies with transportation had the lowest levels of significance with values of 11.8, 16.2, and 17.9, respectively.

Given the nature of development based on public transportation and its positive principles, proponents of this development believe that what should be considered in the design of urban systems is the development of comprehensive urban plans to maximize compliance between urban planning and land-use policies. Other urban transportation systems are optimal according to the characteristics of the urban network. Findings show that this inappropriate combination and uneven distribution of land-uses in development is such that it has not led to the internalization of travel in the field of development. In this way, people are required to use the automobile to do their daily chores, which leads to the demand for travel and, consequently, the need for parking and facing traffic. If there is a mixed-use in the field of development, travel by public transport or on foot to the desired destinations within the field of development, is practiced. Also, in many cases, the current situation is an obstacle in this direction, so that the traditional zoning emphasizes the development of single-use to protect the neighborhood from incompatible uses or limit residential density. For this purpose, it is necessary to re-zoning in comprehensive and detailed plans to consider the benefits of mixed-uses with public transportation, which will lead to greater compliance of the development area with the transit-oriented development approach.

Due to the huge capacity of worn-out structures in the cities of the country, revitalization and reconstruction of these structures can be the key to solving the housing problem and other urban problems. In addition to providing the land needed for housing production in metropolises, worn-out structures can also solve a large part of the cultural and social problems of metropolises by rehabilitating them (Sarvar et al., 1400, 84). Financing worn-out renovation projects for reasons such as serious investment risks and very low investment attractiveness is usually not possible or is done slowly with conventional methods. By identifying and refining the methods and tools of project financing, ‌ it is possible for decision makers in the field of financing to be able to have an optimal combination of different participants in financing resources by holding the capacities of the country's financial market. Achieve their finances.

For this purpose, the first issue that can be discussed according to the procedure is how to provide financial resources. In this research, first, the most important financing methods for the improvement and renovation of worn-out urban structures and the main effective criteria for selecting the appropriate financing method have been obtained through library and field studies. Then, through a questionnaire and based on AHP hierarchical analysis method, the relative weights of the selected effective criteria and the relative weights of the selected financing methods for each of the criteria were measured and finally, the ranking of financing methods used in the present study, Was obtained.

Based on the ranking based on hierarchical analysis, the most important criteria for relevant experts and investors are the criteria of higher rate of return, more participation in the private sector and the provision of more funds with relative weights of 0.278, 0.263 and 0.231. have been.

Among the mentioned financing methods, the research results of two methods of participation bonds and private sector investment with final weights are recommended as 0.325 and 0.237, respectively, and the three methods of project shareholder, metric sale and obtaining facilities from the final weights bank Have earned the next.

It is very important to know the issues related to villages in socio-cultural, economic and environmental terms. Because sometimes the root of all the problems and issues of backwardness is caused by the migration of rural people to the city, which are also due to the lack of capital flow, lack of proper amenities, low income, reduction in the productivity of agricultural activities, and also the weakness in providing services to rural areas. The city and the village complement each other and their growth and development effects the whole complex. They also have mutual effects on each other, which sometimes causes tensions between the two. In this research, in addition to analyzing the promoting and hindering factors of integrated rural-urban development in the central part of Talysh city, it is tried to find solutions to establish balance in the relations of people in urban and rural society so that both can live together and continue their lives away from excellence. Therefore, the general goal of the research is to identify and analyze the factors that lead to the formation of integrated rural-urban development with positive and two-way performance in the villages of the central part of Talysh County

In terms of nature, the present research is an applied research and its governing approach is descriptive-analytical. Questionnaire and documentary and field methods were used to collect data. The statistical population of this research is all the residents of the villages in the central part of Talysh County. A multi-stage method was used for sampling. 23 villages were selected as samples. Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size of households. The number of samples was equal to 351 households. The questions proposed in the questionnaire are closed questions and the questions are presented in the form of a five-choice Likert scale. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to calculate the reliability coefficient. The research variables are: infrastructural facilities and facilities, natural-ecological, agriculture, industry, services, social, education and research and manpower, management and planning. Two descriptive and inferential methods are used to analyze the data. Descriptive statistics are used to estimate the frequency and calculate the average and standard deviation of the data. In inferential statistics, structural equation method was used in LISREL software.

Based on qualitative content analysis of collected data through review of available sources and interviews, key concepts were extracted and during open coding, 41 inhibiting factors and 46 promoting factors of integrated urban-rural development were identified. Eight main groups of obstacles were identified including infrastructural facilities and facilities, natural-ecological, agriculture, industry, services, social, education and research and manpower, management and planning. In the ranking of the factors hindering the integrated urban-rural development based on the general change factor, the three main obstacles to development are manpower, management and planning with a change factor of 0.249, services with a change factor of 0.241, and education and research with a change factor of 0.234. It is considered integrated urban-rural. Also, based on the obtained results, the issues of low level of enjoying social and welfare services and infrastructure facilities, destruction of soil and water resources due to the use of chemical fertilizers and poisons in farms, low production efficiency in the agricultural sector, unwillingness of the private sector to invest In the industry sector in the villages, the lack of identification of the residential tourism potentials and the natural tourism facilities remaining unused, the slow movement in the formation of rural civil institutions in terms of legal, social and economic barriers, the lack of entrepreneurial platforms and the lack of areas for improving the urban management mechanism in line with urban development. In terms of the degree of impact on the lack of integrated urban-rural development, rural areas are ranked first. In the ranking of driving factors based on the coefficient of overall changes, the natural-ecological dimension with a coefficient of change of 0.240, services with a coefficient of change of 0.237, and the social dimension with a coefficient of change of 0.234 are considered to be three driving factors of integrated urban-rural development. Also, based on the results obtained, the texture and architectural pattern of the houses, suitable natural location, the possibility of developing greenhouse cultivation, having some industries inside the village and strong relations with Talysh city for buying inputs, processing and selling products, the presence of high natural tourism attractions. increasing the literacy rate in the villages and increasing the number of educated young people to improve their skills, the relative readiness of the socio-economic structure of the rural areas for education and accepting innovations and new activities and changing the attitude of the government, especially after the revolution, towards social justice and addressing the vulnerable groups in Deprived areas, especially villages, are in the first place in terms of the positive impact on integrated urban-rural development. Based on the evaluation results of the model with factor analysis, the model has acceptable overall fit criteria.

According to the surveys, there are 41 inhibiting factors and 46 promoting factors of integrated urban-rural development in the form of eight main groups including infrastructural facilities and facilities, natural-ecological, agriculture, industry, services, social, education and research and human resources, management and planning were identified. Manpower factor, management and planning, services, education and research are the three important factors that prevent integrated urban-rural development. The rest of the factors are in the next ranks. In the continuation of the results, the natural-ecological dimension, services and social dimension respectively were recognized as three important factors promoting integrated urban-rural development.

In addition to paying attention to the physical goals, urban planning should respond to the qualitative needs of the people of the city. In this regard, the main goal of the current research is to measure the current state of the quality of life in the areas of Ardabil city and provide effective key strategies in improving the quality of urban life with a forward-looking approach. The present research method is based on the practical purpose and on the descriptive-survey nature. The results of the TOPSIS model showed that in terms of quality of life indicators, region 5 of Ardabil city has a very favorable condition, region 1 has a favorable condition, region 4 has an average condition, and two regions 3 and 2 of Ardabil city have a very unfavorable condition. In order to determine effective strategies in improving the quality of urban life with a forward-looking approach, the data was entered into the MICMAC software. The results of the research showed that fifteen key indicators play a vital role in future planning with a forward-looking approach in order to improve the quality of life in the urban areas of Ardabil. Considering the importance of creating a sustainable city, one of the important components of which is improving the quality of life in urban areas, it is suggested to the trustees and executive officials of Ardabil city to implement future plans with a forward-looking approach to improve quality of life indicators in urban areas of Ardabil, especially in urban areas. 2 and 3 cities of Ardabil, which have a very unfavorable situation, should pay more attention to 15 key strategies.

The divisions of the country are the container and framework of the structure of the administrative organization of the country at different levels. In Iran, the division of the country's space into smaller units has a long history and since the formation of the first territorial government until today (more than 2500 years), has been used to manage and control the territorial space by governments. In this research, the course and trend of the divisions of Iran in the pre-Islamic historical period (Medes, Achaemenids, Seleucids, Parthians and Sassanids) have been studied analytically. In this regard, the questions examined in this research are: What was the process of country divisions in ancient Iran? What were the most important factors affecting country divisions in ancient Iran?  Examining the divisions of Iran in historical periods on the one hand can be a step towards recognizing the divisions of the country, the criterias affecting the divisions and the limits of authority of the units in the historical periods and on the other hand, can be from the experiences of those periods to improve the system of current divisions the country used. The results of the study show that the most important components affecting the divisions of the country include historical considerations, geographical area, cultural geography (ethnicity and religion), political considerations, security and military considerations, access and communication structure, adherence to aspects for example: Geography, economic considerations, topography and natural geographical features and boundaries of the land. The most important suggestions that can be made for the current system of state divisions are to pay attention to the history of state divisions, decentralization and delegation of powers, decision-making and implementation of policies to the levels of lower divisions under the supervision of the central government. To the cultural geography in the system of national divisions, attention to qualitative criteria in the system of national divisions, attention to the administrative structure of the city, political centralism - administrative and economic decentralization, the need to pay attention to considerations and potentials in improving the levels of national divisions, especially  attention to territorial unity and security and political considerations in the divisions of the country.The political organization of space shows how human spatial interaction is constructed in order to play political roles in the environment and space. One of the issues of political organization of space is the division of the country. Country divisions include the division of the country into different regions through the establishment of contractual borders. In fact, the division of a country is an act that aims to divide the country into smaller units in order to govern it. The model of political management of space and political divisions of territory is always considered as the two main dimensions of administrative-political divisions because administrative-political divisions on the one hand how to plan for land management according to the view of people and government on the political structure and geographical situation, on the other hand, the division of the country includes the division of territory into smaller administrative areas and attention to its special features for better management of the country.

The research method is "applied" in terms of purpose and "analytical-comparative" in nature. In this research, on the one hand, historical, geographical and social sources related to the historical periods of ancient Iran have been studied and on the other hand, the current system of divisions of the country and its most important weaknesses in the sources have been extracted. The method of collecting information is in the form of libraries and taking notes from the studied sources. The method of data analysis is also performed qualitatively. Finally, in accordance with the strengths of the country's divisions in ancient Iran and the weaknesses of the country's divisions in the current era, suggestions have been made to strengthen and improve the current system of divisions. The innovation of this research is in examining the structure and criterias of the ancient divisions of the country and presenting suggestions based on that period for the current system of divisions, which has not been done in any research.

In this study, the process of divisions of  Iran in the pre-Islamic historical period has been studied. The study of the transformation and process of  political organizing space and country divisions in these periods requires a correct understanding of the geographical, political, social and demographic contexts and conditions of the territory of Iran.The criteria for the division of the country in ancient Iran were influenced on the one hand by the geographical situation of the territory of Iran and on the other hand by the king, who was at the head of the administrative and state organization. During this periods, geographical, political, security, military, social and economic factors have been influential in the divisions of the country. But in each period there were factors that had a greater impact on the divisions of that period. A review of the historical periods of ancient Iran shows that the most important components affecting the divisions of the country include historical considerations, geographical area, cultural geography (ethnicity and religion), political considerations, security and military considerations, access and connections structure, adherence to aspects for example: Geography, economic considerations, topography and natural geographical features and borders of the territory.

The most important suggestions that can be made for the current system of divisions based on the system of national divisions in the historical period of ancient Iran are: attention to the history of national divisions, decentralization and delegation of powers, decision-making and implementation of policies to levels Lower national divisions under the supervision of the central government, attention to cultural geography in the system of national divisions, attention to qualitative criteria in the system of national divisions, attention to the administrative structure of the urban, political centralism - administrative and economic decentralization, the need to pay attention to considerations and potentials In raising the levels of national divisions, especially paying attention to territorial unity and security and political considerations in national divisions.

Nowadays, the discussion of watershed management as a new approach and a paradigm for planning, development and proper land management, water resources management and vegetation restoration with special emphasis on economic, social and environmental issues seeks to create participatory solutions and follows sustainable development (Sirajzadeh,2018: 20). In the framework of a systematic approach to geographical spaces and its phenomena, which emphasizes the relationship between structural and functional components of phenomena in close communication and correlation with each other (Saeedi,2011: 11), natural and ecological environmental factors are among those forces involved in the formation of spatial systems (Sadough and Saeedi,2006: 9). Watershed management projects are one of the common executive actions in the context of land that directly related to the ecological foundations of space. Therefore, recognizing and analyzing the changes and consequences of watershed management activities in the framework of the spatial approach is crucial. In fact, watershed management activities have spatial dimensions and should be considered and evaluated as one of the important geographical issues. In hot and dry climates and deserts areas such as South Khorasan and Birjand city, where there are severely limited water, soil and vegetation resources, the "Chahkand" watershed management project, a sub-basins of Chaahak Mousavieh, is one of the substantial projects with the goal of comprehensive management, preservation, revitalization and exploitation of water, soil and vegetation resources. Moreover, this project is done around hydrologic areas and aims to make a natural and optimal balance among them. The project covers an area of 2720 hectares, which is the site of 9 settlements. Now, more than a decade after the implementation of the Chahkand watershed management project, this study has attempted to represent and recognize the spatial effects of this project on the structural-functional changes of rural settlements in the Chahkand Watershed.

 It was a practical study and based on descriptive-analytical approach. The theoretical foundation and the information related to the background of the project were collected through library method. Additionally, questionnaires and open conversation with local residents were other sources of data collection procedure in the present study. For the purpose of this study, a questionnaire was designed and then filled by 111 participants. The collected data was coded and analyzed with the use of SPSS and Microsoft Excel softwares. In order to analyze the regional stability, "stability radar" and "Morris model" techniques were used.

The results showed that the implementation of the watershed management plan on the sustainability of the settlements of Chahkand area was more than average in social and environmental dimensions and less than average in economic dimension.From a social point of view, the collaboration of some villagers in various projects was effective. Moreover, increasing the water of canals and springs through feeding projects in some years and the gradual restoration of rangelands were influential factors based on the environmental dimension.However, in the economic dimension, according to people’s point of view the expectations of the project have not met. This finding has two main causes. Firstly, the periodic drought phenomenon that causes stagnation, makes a number of project ineffective, and damages the rangeland rehabilitates activities. Secondly, improper distribution of agricultural land ownership among the landlords in large villages in the basin (most of the land belongs to the absent owners).

In the economic dimension, the highest impact of the watershed management project on the spatial developments of the sample villages related to "change in land prices and real estate received by the village" variable and the lowest impact in the field belonged to the "creating sustainable employment" variable. Generally, based on the participants’ point of view the watershed management plan had been moderately effective in the development of rural spaces in the economic dimension. In the social dimension, "the degree of correlation in the village" variable and the "the amount of access to recreational facilities" had the highest and the lowest impact respectively. Furthermore, according to the respondents, the watershed management project has been moderately effective in the development of rural spaces in the social dimension. The highest impact of the watershed management project on the spatial changes of the sample villages in the environmental dimension related to “prevention of damages to canals and avoid the destruction” variable. The result indicated that the lowest impact in the filed belongs to “Quantity of canal water" variable and also to some other variables including "Increased River flow" "Extension of wildlife around the village" and "Restoration of landscapes and natural landscape outside the village" respectively. Using the Morris model to rank the studied villages in Chahkand catchment based on the effects of watershed management project on the dimensions of sustainability (such as economic, social and environmental dimensions) showed that among the villages Ashgabat, Roshanavand and Einid Bala villages got the highest Morris score respectively. According to the Morris model, the highest sustainability related to environmental sustainability in Einid Bala village and the lowest one belonged to economic sustainability in Roshanavand village. Finally, according to the findings of the study, the implementation of the watershed management project had the greatest impact on the status of stability in the social dimension and the least in the economic dimension.

Today, the water crisis has become one of the most fundamental problems for third world countries. The process of reducing the amount of fresh water resources in these countries has made them and the whole world seriously concerned about the fact that the world may move towards water-based wars. Despite the consequences and effects of the water crisis in the environment and even the social space (such as the local and regional conflicts in some provinces of Iran), still, the necessary attention, sensitivity and concern among the general public and even experts and policymakers has not emerged as it should. The expansion of the water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari has the potential to become an almost widespread ethnic and local conflict with its neighboring regions. The water crisis can increase the gaps at the ethnic-local and regional level and threaten the stability and security of the ruling political system. In the meantime, the occurrence of social unrest caused by unemployment, local-regional conflicts over water distribution and obtaining a greater share of water, lack of drinking water and related concerns should not be overlooked. Each of the above cases has the possibility of leading to an independent crisis or to a base for the emergence of security crises. This study aims to analyze scenarios of security consequences of water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province it is based on the systematic investigation of factors influencing the water crisis in particular, it has identified the effective security challenges, alternative and possible scenarios and futures and further, according to the existing situation, based on the influencing factors and the current gap with the optimal to critical state, provide management strategies and necessary measures to achieve the most desirable and compatible scenarios.

The current research is "applied-theoretical" in terms of purpose and based on the nature and method; It is "descriptive-analytical". In this research, based on the nature of the work, quantitative and qualitative methods were used to analyze information and extract indicators. To structural analysis and identify the effective security drivers of the water crisis from the method of cross impact analysis (MicMac software) and for scenario writing the cross-impact balance analysis method (ScenarioWizard software) was used. The statistical population of the current research was academic experts, experts and institutional-organizational managers who have enough knowledge and experience in the topic of water crisis management and the study area. These experts were selected and questioned based on the method of "purposive sampling (expert samples) and chain-referral. In this regard, based on the possibility of willingness to respond to experts and the complexity of the methods, steps and conditions of implementing the Delphi technique, in total of (32) academic experts, managers and institutional-organizational experts were chosen as sample people.

Structural analysis method was used to identify the effective drivers of water crisis security in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. In this regard, the findings of the method of structural analysis of the factors and challenges affecting the water crisis and its consequences in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province showed (13) the drivers of "water governance, inter-basin water transfer projects, local and regional tensions and conflicts, political discrimination, political authority of the government, migration, poverty and deprivation, social capital, unemployment, psychological security, social trust, social cohesion, participation of local institutions, public participation" based on the priority of effectiveness. The most important drivers of security are the water crisis. After identifying the security drivers of the water crisis, to analyze and select the scenarios of the security drivers of the water crisis, the mutual effects cross-impact balance analysis method was used using Scenario Wizard software which is one of the best methods that allows the detection of believable scenarios. According to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (39 x 39), with the help of the scenario wizard software and based on the questionnaire data, the number of (1594323) combined scenarios that include all possible situations were analyzed, the output of this analysis was the extraction of "446 possible scenarios" and "13 believable scenarios", including: "9 scenarios with high compatibility" and "4 strong scenarios". among the thirteen believable scenarios, the largest number of believable scenarios (8 scenarios) are in the yellow (static) spectrum. Also, the results showed that there are four strong scenarios with internal consistency (one scenario with favorable situations and 3 scenarios with critical situations) in front of the security challenges of the water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. From the total of four strong scenarios in the security challenges of water crisis management, the first scenario represents favorable situations, and the tenth, twelfth and thirteenth scenarios represent critical situations in the upcoming conditions of each of the security drivers of the water crisis. Therefore, with the continuation of the current trend and the lack of effective strategies, not only will there not be a better situation in the management of the water crisis, but the expansion of the existing gap will lead to the emergence of the worst possible scenario "scenario 13" with critical situations in all factors.

According to the findings of the research, the problems and tensions of water scarcity, the red alarm of the crisis and water shortage has sounded in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, and this crisis will intensify with the continuation of the current trend. "Weak water governance, incorrect allocation of water resources, non-compliance with the rights of the origin regions of inter-basin water transfer projects and the dominance of more influential and powerful regions" to intensify local and regional tensions and conflicts over water resources and the increase of social gap and political, social and managerial conflicts and general discontent has resulted; thus, according to the results of the research and the conditions governing the current situation of the security challenges of water crisis management in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, the most favorable scenario for prospective management of water crisis security challenges, selecting the drivers of the first scenario based on 13 ideal situations and the best leading scenario to improve the situation governing the security challenges of the water crisis will be in the framework of optimal water governance so that by making appropriate decisions and applying strategies in front of each of the key drivers, to manage the challenges arising from the water crisis, especially the security challenges. Investigation of possible impacts and scenarios of water crisis shows that by considering the driving condition of main factors and their interaction, the probability of encountering with crisis and water stress is more likely than optimistic probability. As the crisis situations and existing trends show, facing this crisis is inevitable; thus, in the long term or in the short term in the coming years, many rural areas and most urban areas will be heavily involved with this issue as the water stress situation worsens. In this regard, the water crisis is a serious issue and requires a quick solution, which seems to be the optimal solution to pay attention and focus on the factors and challenges that cause the critical situation and water shortage in the province.

One of the important branches of synoptic climatology is identifying the extreme states of environmental features, such as severe storms and especially heavy rains and floods (Alijani et al., 2008, 107). Flood is the most common environmental damage. Every year, floods kill more than 2000 people and unfortunately affect 75 million of the world's population (Mohammadi and Masoudian, 2008, 70). Flood is considered as one of the most important natural disasters in our country, and what makes this natural disaster a disaster is the lack of awareness to deal with its consequences and prevent the adverse effects of natural events on the pillars of economic and environmental well-being. Therefore, since heavy and torrential rains are dangerous and damaging environmental phenomena that occur in most places, especially in areas with little rain, and cause a lot of damage, identifying the synoptic conditions that cause these rains can help in predicting the time of occurrence and implementing the necessary preparations.

In this study, two categories of ground and upper atmosphere data are used as follows:A) Use of daily rainfall data from October to December for 22 stations located in Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Lorestan and Ilam provinces, which were obtained from the National Meteorological Organization during the statistical period of 1991 to 2019.B) Using high-level data. Includes reprocessed data for components of geopotential height, sea level pressure, zonal wind, meridional wind, specific humidity, and omega obtained from the US Environmental Prediction Database. The spatial resolution of this data is 2.5 by 2.5 arc degrees. TRMM satellite data with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 degree was also used to analyze rainfall and runoff. To perform synoptic analysis, the environmental to circulation method has been used; In this way, first, the days of heavy rains were identified with the 98% percentile method, and then their synoptic dimensions in the space between 10 to 70 degrees north latitude and 0 to 80 degrees east longitude were investigated. By considering and applying the two conditions of rainfall threshold greater than 98 percent and covering more than 50 percent on the daily rainfall data of the autumn season (September 23 to December 21) during the period from 1991 to 2019 at selected stations in the western provinces of Iran, 20 days super heavy rain was extracted. The amount of precipitation on the mentioned days ranges from 22 to 81 mm; which shows the lower intensity of heavy rains in the autumn season compared to the winter season of the region. In this research, using the obtained data, maps of sea level pressure, combination of geopotential height and Omega, humidity advection, jet stream, precipitation rate, runoff and profile have been drawn and analyzed using Grads software. In the next step, in order to classify the patterns of sea level pressure on the days of heavy rain, the s-mode cluster analysis method was carried out using Euclidean distance and Ward technique.

Figure 2 shows the clustering tree of sea level pressure data during the days of heavy and pervasive rainfall in the western half of Iran. In this research, s-state cluster analysis method with Ward integration technique was used to classify pressure patterns during days of heavy rain. The obtained patterns were also checked by visual method and trial and error in order to select the best classes with the least intra-group difference and the most extra-group differences and changes. Finally, after the investigations, 4 pressure patterns were identified. But in this research, due to the similarity of patterns and the large number of maps, 3 final patterns were selected for analysis. The identified patterns are the first pattern of multi-core low pressures (Sudanese, Mediterranean and Saudi) with 8 days, the second pattern of Sudanese low pressure with 8 days and the third pattern of North European-Atlas, Mediterranean and Sudanese low pressures with 4 days (Table 1). In terms of time, the months of November, December and October have the highest number of rainy days. The slope of the heavy rainfall trend in all stations except Ilam shows a slight increasing trend. Only Ilam station has experienced a weak negative trend of heavy rainfall. This behavior of the trend of heavy rain actually indicates the increase of flood rains in this region of the country in the autumn season. Based on the frequency of days of heavy rain, the selected stations of Sanandaj and Hamedan are equal to each other with 26 days of heavy rain, Kermanshah and Khorramabad stations with 24 days and Ilam with 15 days. It can be seen that there is a slight difference between the stations in terms of the occurrence of this extreme and risky phenomenon, which can be an indication of the effects of circulation patterns on a synoptic scale that have created these conditions.

The statistical analysis of the days of heavy rain in the western part of Iran in the autumn season showed that the months of November, December and October have the most frequent days of heavy rain. Most of the stations in the region experience a weak positive trend of heavy rainfall on an annual scale, which indicates an increase in the occurrence of such extreme events in the autumn season of the last few years. Based on the 98% percentile threshold, the frequency of rainy days in the selected stations ranges from 15 to 26 days, and there is a slight difference between the stations in this regard. For the synoptic section, after classifying the sea level pressure patterns by cluster analysis method, a visual inspection of the pressure maps from a few days before the peak of rainfall was done to ensure the type of pressure systems and their main origin. Finally, after the investigations, 3 final patterns of super heavy rainfall in the west of the country during the autumn season were identified. The results of the analysis of sea level pressure patterns showed that in the first pattern, multi-core low pressure centers are located over the Middle East. In the second pattern, we see extensive changes in the pressure values in the Northern Hemisphere, in such a way that the Siberian high pressure with an east-west movement covers all of Russia, East and Central Europe, and North-East Africa, It has not allowed the penetration of low pressure systems from the Mediterranean and Europe, and in this case, only the Sudanese low pressure entered the studied area after passing through the Red Sea and Arabia from the south-west and south of Iran. But in the third pattern, the pressure changes in the Northern Hemisphere are the opposite of the other patterns, so that since the days before the peak of rainfall, the closed low pressure center from the north of the Atlantic Ocean has started to advance eastward and with the extension of its tongues on the southern latitudes, created the secondary Mediterranean low pressure in the west of this sea, and on the day of peak rainfall, it is located in the east of the sea, or it merges with the low pressure tongue of the North Atlantic, and it covers the western region of the country in a unified manner with the closed low pressure of Sudan and Arabia.